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Welfare Reviews Due This Month: Should Disabled People Fear Benefit Cuts?

6 hours ago
6 min read

Two government reviews that could reshape disability benefits are due to report this month, and every major party is hunting for savings. But the British public shows remarkably little appetite for cutting benefits for disabled people who cannot work...


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This month could prove a turning point for disability benefits. Two government reviews are due to report in November, one led by Alan Milburn into why so many young people are out of work and education, and one led by Sir Stephen Timms into Personal Independence Payment (PIP). The government has promised to respond to both before the end of the year, with a White Paper early in 2027 and legislation to follow. Together they will set the terms for the next round of welfare reform, and every major party is already hunting for savings. Yet beneath the political noise sits a fact that gets far less attention. The public has remarkably little appetite for cutting disability benefits.


The Milburn and Timms Reviews Report This Month


Alan Milburn, the former Labour health secretary, was asked by the Department for Work and Pensions to examine why so many young people are out of work and education. His interim report in May found that more than a million 16 to 24-year-olds were not in education, employment or training, and that for every £1 spent helping young people into work, around £25 goes on benefits. Milburn insisted young people today are ‘not worse, not lazier, not less capable’ than earlier generations. His final report was held back so it would not overshadow the Budget on 28 October, and is now expected within days or weeks.


It already appears to be shaping thinking in Downing Street. Reports this autumn suggested ministers are considering scrapping the Universal Credit health element for under-25s, including existing claimants, and using the savings to fund subsidised jobs, back-to-work schemes and mental health support. A government source said the details were yet to be decided. Milburn himself admitted at a Labour conference fringe event that ‘when it comes to benefit cuts it will be tricky’. Disabled people's organisations will be watching closely to see whether his recommendations bring more support, or simply less money.


The PIP review is co-chaired by Sir Stephen Timms, the minister for social security and disability, alongside Sharon Brennan and Dr Clenton Farquharson. More than 38,000 people responded to its call for evidence, and its interim report in July concluded that PIP is not fit for purpose, with assessments described as stressful and dehumanising. Emerging recommendations followed in September. Cash would remain ‘the foundation of the award’, but some awards could also include services or other non-cash support. Disability Rights UK said it was very concerned about the lack of clarity. The review is now finalising its recommendations, and its last update before the final report described the evidence as painting a clear picture.


Why the Welfare Bill Is Under Scrutiny


Both reviews land against a backdrop of rising costs. The Office for Budget Responsibility's latest forecast, published alongside the Budget on 28 October, puts welfare spending at £353 billion this year, or 11.1 per cent of GDP, rising to £431 billion by 2031/32. Close to half of that goes to pensioners, a detail often lost when welfare is discussed as though it were mainly working-age benefits. Spending on health and disability benefits reached £85.6 billion last year and is forecast to pass £100 billion in 2028/29. Asking why more people are becoming too unwell to work is a reasonable priority.


In spring 2025 the government proposed tighter eligibility for PIP. Backbench opposition and public pushback forced a climbdown within months. The PIP changes were dropped, and Sir Stephen Timms was asked to lead a full review instead. The November 2025 Budget then scrapped the two-child limit, pushing the welfare forecast up rather than down. One cut did survive. Since April 2026, most new Universal Credit claimants found too unwell to work receive a health element of £217.26 a month, roughly half the rate paid to existing claimants.


Every Party Is Looking for Savings


The search for savings is not confined to government. Reform UK has gone furthest. In August its Treasury spokesman, Robert Jenrick, set out plans to cut £50 billion from the welfare bill, including replacing PIP in its current form and abolishing the Universal Credit health element for working-age adults. On Reform's own figures, around 2.89 million people would see their support changed or withdrawn. The Conservatives have pledged £23 billion of savings, including ending sickness benefits for lower-level mental health conditions and bringing back face-to-face assessments. Andy Burnham's Labour government dismissed Reform's plan as ‘fantasy economics’, but is weighing savings of its own.


What the Public Thinks About Disability Benefit Cuts


The British Social Attitudes survey, one of the country's longest-running measures of public opinion, suggests voters draw a clear line between welfare in general and support for disabled people who cannot work. Its latest findings, published by the National Centre for Social Research (NatCen) in September, show just 7 per cent favour spending less on benefits for disabled people unable to work, while 49 per cent want more spent. Disability benefits are also the public's top priority for any extra welfare spending, named by 63 per cent of people, ahead of every other benefit including retirement pensions on 53 per cent.


That gap holds even among voters least sympathetic to welfare. Among Conservative and Reform UK supporters, 40 per cent favour spending more on disabled people who cannot work, against just 10 per cent who want to spend less. Among Labour voters, 57 per cent want more spent and only 5 per cent back cuts. There are caveats. The fieldwork took place in 2025, before Reform's pledge, and the question asks about disabled people who cannot work, not young claimants or mental health conditions specifically. Other polling, including from Ipsos, suggests attitudes towards claimants in general have hardened. But the core finding is hard to dismiss.


Why Disability Benefit Cuts Are Not Inevitable


None of this means the system should stay exactly as it is. Disabled people who want to work deserve far better employment support, barriers in workplaces, transport and recruitment need tackling, and assessments should be accurate and fair. Concern about change is also entirely understandable for anyone whose independence depends on the support being discussed. The polling does not guarantee benefits will be left alone, because policy is driven by budgets and parliamentary arithmetic as well as opinion. Yet the PIP climbdown of 2025 shows how politically difficult substantial disability benefit cuts become once people understand what they actually mean.


The Bigger Question


Perhaps policymakers should ask a different question. Not how much can be removed from the disability benefit bill, but why more people need support in the first place, and what would genuinely reduce that need. Better healthcare, earlier intervention, accessible jobs and employers willing to make reasonable adjustments will not deliver the instant saving of a benefit cut. They could, however, tackle the reasons people leave work or struggle to return. When asked directly, only 7 per cent of the public want less spent on disabled people who cannot work. With both reviews about to report, politicians would do well to remember that.


FAQs


Do most people support cuts to disability benefits?


No. The latest British Social Attitudes findings show only 7 per cent favour spending less on benefits for disabled people unable to work, compared with 49 per cent who favour spending more.


Do Conservative and Reform voters support disability benefit cuts?


Only a minority do. Among Conservative and Reform supporters, 10 per cent favour spending less while 40 per cent favour spending more.


Is welfare spending increasing?


Yes. Total social security spending in Great Britain is forecast at £322.6 billion in 2025/26, though around 55 per cent of that goes to pensioners rather than working-age disabled claimants.


Were the disability benefit cuts proposed in 2025 actually introduced?


Partly. Public and backbench opposition forced the government to drop its planned PIP changes in 2025 and set up the Timms review instead, and the Autumn Budget reversed further planned savings. A cut to the Universal Credit health element for new claimants did go ahead in April 2026.


What is the Milburn review?


An independent review led by former health secretary Alan Milburn into why so many young people are not in education, employment or training, including the role of health and disability benefits. His interim report was published in May 2026 and his final report is due this autumn.


What is the Timms review of PIP?


A review of Personal Independence Payment led by Sir Stephen Timms, the minister for social security and disability, working with disabled people and their organisations. Its interim report said PIP is no longer fit for purpose. Draft recommendations were published in September 2026 and final recommendations are due this autumn.


Are all the main parties looking for welfare savings?


Yes, to differing degrees. Reform UK has proposed £50 billion of welfare cuts including abolishing PIP for working-age adults, the Conservatives would end benefits for low-level mental health conditions, and the government is reported to be considering changes to the Universal Credit health element.


Does public opposition mean disability benefits cannot be cut?


No. Governments can still propose and legislate for reforms regardless of survey findings. But the figures suggest politicians should be cautious about assuming tougher rhetoric on welfare translates into public support for cutting disability benefits specifically.


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